{"id":6709,"date":"2018-06-27T13:15:32","date_gmt":"2018-06-27T13:15:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bitcoinromania.ro\/blog\/?p=6709"},"modified":"2026-03-01T13:37:55","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T11:37:55","slug":"jurnalul-crypto-analiza-zilelor-25-26-iunie-bitcoin-romania","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcoinromania.ro\/blog\/jurnalul-crypto-analiza-zilelor-25-26-iunie-bitcoin-romania\/","title":{"rendered":"Jurnalul Crypto – Analiza Zilelor 25-26 iunie – Bitcoin Romania"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jurnalul Crypto – analiza zilelor 25-26 iunie – Bitcoin Romania<\/h3>\n

* Bitcoin *<\/h3>\n

Evolu\u021bia Bitcoin<\/strong> pentru zilele precedente (luni \u0219i mar\u021bi – 20, 21 iunie) a \u00eenregistrat o sc\u0103dere de 2.77%, consider\u00e2nd
\npre\u021bul de deschidere al zilei de luni de la $6148.1 \u0219i cel al \u00eenchiderii de mar\u021bi de la $6073.4, av\u00e2nd maximul la $6341.0 \u0219i minimul la $6050.2<\/p>\n

\"btc\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Iat\u0103 c\u0103 \u0219i de aceast\u0103 dat\u0103 g\u0103sim Bitcoin<\/strong> fluctu\u00e2nd \u00eentre liniile orizontale pe care le folosim de mai bine de o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een analiza Jurnalului Crypto. Discutam \u00een edi\u021bia trecut\u0103<\/a>\u00a0despre cazurile posibile pe care pre\u021bul le-ar putea adopta p\u00e2n\u0103 ast\u0103zi: primul – o \u00eentoarcere negativ\u0103 a pre\u021bului c\u0103tre zona $5900,\u00a0 urmat\u0103 de o cre\u0219tere \u00eenapoi la loc, \u0219i al doilea – o cre\u0219tere c\u0103tre ~$6400, urmat\u0103 de o retragere \u00eenapoi \u00een zona de suport. De\u0219i niciunul dintre aceste dou\u0103 nivele nu a fost atins \u00eentr-un mod decisiv, cazul 2 a fost mai aproape de ac\u021biunea pre\u021bului care a avut loc \u00een aceste
\ndou\u0103 zile.<\/p>\n

\u00cen primele 12 ore ale sesiunii de luni, BTC<\/strong> a consolidat \u00eentr-un canal ascendent (marcat \u00een st\u00e2nga, cu ro\u0219u). Sunt c\u00e2teva\u00a0 elemente asupra c\u0103rora a\u0219 dori s\u0103 m\u0103 opresc aici, pentru a le discuta:<\/p>\n

– primul<\/strong><\/em>: uit\u00e2ndu-ne doar la lum\u0103n\u0103ri, se observ\u0103 c\u0103 aceast\u0103 consolidare a fost una „choppy” (termen oferit de traderi zonelor \u00een care pre\u021bul nu are o direc\u021bie clar\u0103, ci un mers haotic \u00een sus \u0219i \u00een jos pentru a-i for\u021b\u0103 pe ace\u0219tia s\u0103 ias\u0103 din pozi\u021biile adoptate)
\n– al doilea<\/strong><\/em>: 75% din aceast\u0103 consolidare a avut loc \u00een jurul $6151.9, nivel orizontal de suport care a jucat rol de rezisten\u021b\u0103 \u00een weekend; dup\u0103 cum am precizat \u0219i \u00een trecut, aceste „nivele cheie” sunt, pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 rezisten\u021b\u0103\/ suport, \u0219i zone \u00een care pre\u021bul acumuleaz\u0103 tensiune; acest lucru s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat \u0219i aici, \u00een locul marcat cu o s\u0103geat\u0103 neagr\u0103; vom vedea c\u0103 tot la acest nivel, au mai avut loc dou\u0103 atingeri semnificative pe parcursul urm\u0103toarelor ore
\n– al treilea<\/strong><\/em>: volatilitatea acestui canal a \u00eenregistrat fluctua\u021bii de $137.9, respectiv 2.26%, \u00eentre minimul de la $6107.4 \u0219imaximul de la $6245.3<\/p>\n

Dup\u0103 ce acest ultim pre\u021b men\u021bionat a fost atins, BTC<\/strong> a suferit o alt\u0103 sc\u0103dere de $177, p\u00e2n\u0103 la $6070, pre\u021b care a reprezentat o oportunitate pentru cump\u0103r\u0103tori \u0219i a fost respins \u00een mai pu\u021bin de o or\u0103. Dup\u0103 o scurt\u0103 consolidare deasupra nivelului $6088 – indicat cu o linie albastru deschis – cump\u0103r\u0103torii au \u00eenregistrat cel mai mare c\u00e2\u0219tig al acestor zile: o cre\u0219tere de $272.8 \u00eentr-o or\u0103, p\u00e2n\u0103 la $6341, pre\u021b care coincide cu maximul s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nii. De\u0219i acesta a fost atins cu umbra lum\u0103n\u0103rii, BTC<\/strong> nu a reu\u0219it s\u0103 \u00eenchid\u0103 peste $6295, nivelul de suport de pe Daily al zilelor 13 \u0219i 14 iunie. Transformarea unui suport \u00een rezisten\u021b\u0103 nu indic\u0103 un lucru bun pentru cump\u0103r\u0103tori.<\/p>\n

De la acest fost suport – confirmat momentan ca fiind rezisten\u021b\u0103, pre\u021bul a avut un declin constant p\u00e2n\u0103 ast\u0103zi. $6223 a func\u021bionat pe post de pre\u021b pivot, av\u00e2nd at\u00e2t rol de rezisten\u021b\u0103 \u00eenainte de cre\u0219terea accelerat\u0103 \u0219i pe parcursul declinului, c\u00e2t \u0219i de suport – de c\u00e2teva ori, atunci c\u00e2nd pre\u021bul a trecut cu succes peste. De la atingerea rezisten\u021bei ro\u0219ii \u0219i p\u00e2n\u0103 ultimul „Swing Failure<\/em>” (tentativ\u0103 a pre\u021bului de a \u00eenchide peste nivelul de rezisten\u021b\u0103 <sau suport>, f\u0103r\u0103 succes \u00eens\u0103 – l\u0103s\u00e2nd doar o umbr\u0103 peste pre\u021bul \u00een cauz\u0103 – am marcat acest S F cu un ciocan), pre\u021bului i-a trebuit o zi, 7 ore \u0219i 15 minute s\u0103 ajung\u0103 aici, dup\u0103 care v\u00e2nz\u0103torii au marcat o sc\u0103dere de $236.2, respectiv 3.77%.<\/p>\n

$6088, nivelul de care discutam mai sus, a devenit, pe parcursul zilei de ast\u0103zi, rezisten\u021b\u0103 la multiplele tentative de a trece peste.<\/p>\n

Acest lucru, \u00eenso\u021bit de faptul c\u0103 volumul de cump\u0103rare lipse\u0219te deocamdat\u0103, nu indic\u0103 o situa\u021bie favorabil\u0103 cump\u0103r\u0103torilor. Desigur, \u0219tim cu to\u021bii c\u00e2t de plin\u0103 de surprize este pia\u021ba crypto: nu spun c\u0103 aceste elemente nu pot ap\u0103rea \u00een viitorul apropiat.<\/p>\n

La ce ne putem a\u0219tepta?<\/em><\/p>\n

O continuare a consolid\u0103rii pe parcursul urm\u0103toarelor ore este scenariul cel mai probabil. De asemenea, $6042.6 are mari \u0219anse s\u0103 fie retestat. Dac\u0103 acel nivel continu\u0103 s\u0103 ofere suport \u0219i s\u0103 st\u00e2rneasc\u0103 interesul cump\u0103r\u0103torilor, putem asista la o retestare a $6151.9, fostul nivel de rezisten\u021b\u0103. Repet: e important ca nivelul psihologic ~$6000 s\u0103 continue s\u0103 ofere suport, altfel Cazul 1<\/a> din edi\u021bia trecut\u0103 a Jurnalului Crypto mi se pare \u00een continuare scenariul probabil.<\/p>\n

* ETH \/ BTC *<\/h3>\n

Dac\u0103 \u00een toate edi\u021biile trecute am ales pentru analiz\u0103 paritatea ETH\/USD<\/strong>, \u00een aceasta vom lua evolu\u021bia Ethereumului fa\u021b\u0103 de\u00a0 Bitcoin<\/strong>, pentru o macro-perspectiv\u0103, pe un timeframe de 4 ore (adic\u0103 fiecare dintre lum\u0103n\u0103ri reprezent\u00e2nd reac\u021bia pre\u021bului pe parcursul a 240 de minute). \u00cen grafic avem \u00eencadrat\u0103 evolu\u021bia ultimelor trei luni: aprilie, mai \u0219i cea curent\u0103 – iunie. S\u0103 \u00eencepem cu \u00eenceputul \u0219i\u00a0 s\u0103 citim graficul de la st\u00e2nga la dreapta:<\/p>\n

\"ethbtc\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Luna aprilie a \u00eenceput printr-o dubl\u0103 testare a nivelului 0.054 BTC<\/strong> – una \u00een 29 martie (chiar la finalul lunii precedente) iar cea de-a doua \u00een 4 aprilie, interval \u00een care o rezisten\u021b\u0103 temporar\u0103 a fost stabilit\u0103 la 0.0583 BTC. Dup\u0103 o consolidare de 3 zile – \u00eencadrat\u0103\u00a0 \u00een chenarul mic, ro\u0219u, de jos – Ethereum<\/strong> a \u00eenceput ascensiunea care a durat mai bine de 45 de zile. Odat\u0103 dep\u0103\u0219it nivelul de rezisten\u021b\u0103 ante-men\u021bionat, acesta a fost retestat din direc\u021bia superioar\u0103, devenind suport.<\/p>\n

\u00cenainte de prima corec\u021bie (major\u0103 la momentul respectiv), ETH<\/strong> a \u00eenregistrat o cre\u0219tere de 17.52% (~0.0094 BTC), de la punctul de minim, p\u00e2n\u0103 la 0.063 BTC<\/strong>, pre\u021b la care v\u00e2nz\u0103torii au considerat c\u0103 trebuiesc marcate profituri \u00eenainte de a continua. Sc\u0103derea care\u00a0 a venit imediat dup\u0103 a fost abrupt\u0103, \u00eenregistr\u00e2nd un procentaj de 6.7% \u00een doar 8 ore. Privind lucrurile \u00een retrospectiv\u0103, putem spune c\u0103 aceasta a fost menit\u0103 s\u0103-i „scuture<\/em>” din afara pozi\u021biilor de long pe traderii care le-au adoptat mai t\u00e2rziu. Un astfel de comportament\u00a0 al pre\u021bului este des \u00eent\u00e2lnit \u00een pie\u021bele financiare, \u00eendeosebi \u00een sfera crypto. S\u0103 revenim: pe c\u00e2t de abrupt\u0103 spuneam c\u0103 a fost aceast\u0103\u00a0 sc\u0103dere, pe at\u00e2t de rapid\u0103 \u0219i revenirea pre\u021bului peste, reac\u021bie care a format o s\u0103ritur\u0103 \u00een form\u0103 de „V<\/strong>” (\u00een englez\u0103 – V shape bounce<\/em>).<\/p>\n

Dup\u0103 acest „bounce<\/em>„, pia\u021ba s-a calmat timp de o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103, timp \u00een care cel de-al doilea canal de acumulare a fost format, acesta\u00a0 fiind ascendent, spre deosebire de cel\u0103lalt; volatilitate redus\u0103, o acumulare de tensiune a pre\u021bului \u00een jurul 0.0636 BTC<\/strong> – este posibil ca\u00a0\u00een viitor acest nivel s\u0103 joace un rol de suport.<\/p>\n

Dup\u0103 ce consolidarea a luat sf\u00e2r\u0219it, \u00een data de 19 aprilie, ETH<\/strong> a beneficiat de \u00eenc\u0103 o cre\u0219tere, mai mare de data aceasta,\u00a0p\u00e2n\u0103 0.0747 BTC<\/strong>, nivel care vom observa imediat c\u0103 a avut un rol important \u00een luna mai \u0219i iunie. Dup\u0103 ce \u00een prim\u0103 instan\u021b\u0103 ETH<\/strong> a\u00a0\u00eent\u00e2mpinat rezisten\u021b\u0103 aici, pre\u021bul a avut din nou un comportament „choppy” (haotic – \u00een sus \u0219i \u00een jos), cu o sc\u0103dere de aproximativ 12% \u00eentr-o zi, urmat\u0103 de o cre\u0219tere – tot de 12% – \u00een urm\u0103toarele 5 zile, timp \u00een care pre\u021bul a l\u0103sat umbre \u00een toate direc\u021biile, cele mai\u00a0lungi fiind \u00een partea de jos – lucru care indic\u0103 un interes mai mare al cump\u0103r\u0103torilor dec\u00e2t al v\u00e2nz\u0103torilor.<\/p>\n

Dup\u0103 multiple \u00eencerc\u0103ri de a trece peste 0.0747 BTC<\/strong>, Ethereum<\/strong> a reu\u0219it \u00een 3 mai s\u0103 realizeze acest lucru, \u00eenregistr\u00e2nd \u00eenc\u0103 o cre\u0219tere, de 13.37% de aceast\u0103 dat\u0103. Dac\u0103 am compara graficul acesta de 4 ore cu un grafic specific metodei Wyckoff, am putea identifica distribu\u021bia care a avut loc \u00een dreptunghiul de la nivel superior, \u00eencadrat cu albastru deschis. Un alt lucru specific care se poate observa\u00a0 aici este c\u0103 linia de trend pe care pre\u021bul a respectat-o cu stricte\u021be este abia acum spart\u0103, dup\u0103 ce distribu\u021bia a avut loc. Aceasta a durat 9 zile \u0219i a fost continuat\u0103 de o alt\u0103 sc\u0103dere de ~12%, p\u00e2n\u0103 la 0.0747 BTC – pre\u021b care spuneam c\u0103 a fost rezisten\u021b\u0103 \u00eenainte. S-a format\u00a0 un fanion (mai corect – forma\u021biunea se nume\u0219te „flat top ascending triangle<\/em>„), pattern cunoscut pentru semnalul de continuare pe
\ncare-l ofer\u0103, dup\u0103 care ETH<\/strong> a continuat s\u0103 scad\u0103, aflat sub presiunea v\u00e2nz\u0103torilor. Primul suport g\u0103sit de acesta s-a aflat la 0.072 BTC<\/strong>, zon\u0103 cu care pre\u021bul a cochetat \u0219i \u00eenainte de a intra sub linia de trend – \u00een partea st\u00e2ng\u0103, sub linia mov.<\/p>\n

\u00cen continuare, Ethereum<\/strong> \u0219i-a stabilit, pe parcursul \u00eentregii luni \u00een care ne afl\u0103m, un range\/ o zon\u0103 cu suport la 0.072 BTC \u0219i\u00a0rezisten\u021b\u0103 la 0.08 BTC, pre\u021buri pe care le-a atins de mai multe ori, nereu\u0219ind, p\u00e2n\u0103 de cur\u00e2nd, s\u0103 str\u0103pung\u0103 niciunul. Am spus „p\u00e2n\u0103 <\/em>de cur\u00e2nd<\/em>” deoarece acest lucru s-a schimbat chiar ieri, c\u00e2nd ETH a \u00eenchis at\u00e2t pe 4H c\u00e2t \u0219i pe Daily sub nivelul orizontal de suport.<\/p>\n

Un semn de exclamare (!) a fost pus acolo pentru a indica retestarea din nivel inferior care a avut loc acum 4 ore. Faptul c\u0103 0.072 BTC\u00a0devine rezisten\u021b\u0103 nu indic\u0103 nimic bun pentru cump\u0103r\u0103tori, ba chiar opusul: dac\u0103 zona \u00eencadrat\u0103 \u00eentre „Rezisten\u021b\u0103<\/em>” \u0219i „Suport 1<\/em>” n-a fost altceva dec\u00e2t o mare distribu\u021bie, s-ar putea ca ETH s\u0103 aibe parte de o corec\u021bie sever\u0103.<\/p>\n

La ce ne putem a\u0219tepta?<\/em><\/p>\n

Pentru cump\u0103r\u0103tori – ar fi indicat s\u0103 mai a\u0219tepte c\u00e2teva zile, s\u0103 observe dac\u0103 ie\u0219irea \u00een care ne afl\u0103m momentan a fost sau nu un „fakeout<\/em>” (o ie\u0219ire fals\u0103 – menit\u0103 s\u0103 prind\u0103 v\u00e2nz\u0103torii \u00een capcan\u0103<\/em>). Dac\u0103 0.072 BTC<\/strong> continu\u0103 s\u0103 ac\u021bioneze ca rezisten\u021b\u0103, urm\u0103torul nivel pe care ETH<\/strong> l-ar putea atinge va fi 0.0686 BTC<\/strong> \u0219i chiar 0.0636 BTC<\/strong> – pre\u021bul despre care spuneam c\u0103 a acumulat tensiune \u00een luna\u00a0aprilie. Un Fibonacci Retracement, aplicat de jos \u00een sus, de la minim la maxim, indic\u0103 c\u0103tre 2 alte pre\u021buri:<\/p>\n

– 0.069711 BTC, respectiv nivelul 0.5
\n– 0.065907 BTC, respectiv nivelul 0.618<\/p>\n

S-ar putea ca acestea 2 s\u0103 joace un oarecare rol (fie de suport, fie de rezisten\u021b\u0103) \u00een ac\u021biunea viitoare a pre\u021bului, \u00eens\u0103 cred\u00a0 c\u0103 acesta va fi unul minor \u0219i recomand o urm\u0103rire mai „\u00eendeaproape<\/em>” a liniilor orizontale. E bine totu\u0219i s\u0103 avem \u00een vedere \u0219i nivelele\u00a0 Fibonacci, o unealt\u0103 folosit\u0103 de mul\u021bi traderi pe pie\u021bele financiare.<\/p>\n

Spor & trade safe.
\n-Cristian Bo\u021b, analist tehnic Bitcoin Rom\u00e2nia<\/p>\n

\u00a92018 BitcoinRomania | Declinarea Responsabilit\u0103\u021bii: Acest mesaj este strict cu caracter informativ, nu este o recomandare sau sfat de tranzac\u021bionare pentru nici un instrument financiar \u0219i nu reprezint\u0103 sub nici o form\u0103 termenii \u0219i condi\u021bii oficiale sau angajamente \u00een rela\u021bia cu BTR Exchange SRL. Nu exist\u0103 \u0219i nu este oferit\u0103 nicio garan\u021bie c\u0103 informa\u021biile prezentate sunt complete sau exacte. Orice opinie exprimat\u0103 este strict p\u0103rerea subiectiv\u0103 a persoanei care a emis acea opinie \u0219i nu reprezint\u0103 punctul de vedere oficial al BitcoinRomania, BTR Exchange SRL. BTR Exchange nu ofer\u0103 nicio garan\u021bie c\u0103 informa\u021biile oferite sunt complete, corecte \u0219i precise, exist\u00e2nd posibilitatea unei erori tehnice sau umane.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jurnalul Crypto – analiza zilelor 25-26 iunie – Bitcoin Romania * Bitcoin * Evolu\u021bia Bitcoin pentru zilele precedente (luni \u0219i mar\u021bi – 20, 21 iunie) a \u00eenregistrat o sc\u0103dere de 2.77%, consider\u00e2nd pre\u021bul de deschidere al zilei de luni de la $6148.1 \u0219i cel al \u00eenchiderii de mar\u021bi de la $6073.4, av\u00e2nd maximul la $6341.0 \u0219i minimul la $6050.2 Iat\u0103 c\u0103 \u0219i de aceast\u0103 dat\u0103 g\u0103sim Bitcoin fluctu\u00e2nd \u00eentre liniile orizontale pe care le folosim de mai bine de oRead More<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[677,2,628],"tags":[683,597,613],"class_list":["post-6709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analiza-tehnica","category-bitcoin","category-ethereum","tag-analiza-tehnica","tag-bitcoin","tag-pretul-bitcoin"],"yoast_head":"\nJurnalul Crypto - 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